What can we expect from the US Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole?
This week central bankers will be licking their lips at the prospect of attacking the wine cellar of the Kansas Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium. It is not a problem for them as we via...
View ArticleSweden plans a series of interest-rate cuts as it fears a recession
A week which looks to be set to be full of debate over interest-rate cuts and in particular if and when he US will start them has had its first actual move this morning. The Executive Board has...
View ArticleThe UK political class continues to be fiscally spendthrift
This morning has brought us up to date with the latest figures on the UK public-sector finances. They have become more of heated issue after the new Chancellor Rachel Reeves declared this in her first...
View ArticleThe ECB is facing a two-speed Euro area economy
Today the Jackson Hole symposium starts and in one way it seems likely to make ECB policy easier when we hear from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. But once the ECB delegates have selected the best...
View ArticleWhy do our political elites want an expensive unstable domestic energy supply?
Today has brought news for the UK that more than a few will have dreaded. From 1 October to 31 December the price for energy for a typical household who use electricity and gas and pay by Direct Debit...
View ArticleBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has been busy rewriting history
At the end of last week the prime piece of economic news was the strong hint at Jackson Hole from Federal Reserve Chair that it will cut interest-rates next month. Indeed some were thinking he was...
View ArticleThe ECB gets ready to reduce interest-rates next month
This morning has brought us up to date on the latest monetary data for the ECB and it is something they take note of. It terms of action we have seen them ease policy in response to it being weak. …...
View ArticleThe Cost of Living crisis was much worse than the official inflation numbers
This morning I noted something which raised a wry smile. It covered what are important economic topics as well as an issue I have campaigned on for more than a decade now. The Financial Times has put...
View ArticleThe Bank of England will be very happy with the data on mortgage lending and...
Early this morning a deep sigh could have been heard at the Bank of England as the research student selected to present the morning meeting saw the announcement from The Nationwide. UK house prices...
View ArticleThe property crisis in China continues to weigh down the economy
This morning has brought more news on the ongoing Chinese property crash as we note this from a Hong Kong based property developer. HONG KONG, Sept 2 (Reuters) – Shares of New World Development , a...
View ArticleHousing Costs should be in official inflation measures
To the casual reader the headline for this piece may be something of a surprise. After all they would reasonably expect that what is usually the largest component of people’s spending to also be a...
View ArticleThe Federal Reserve needs to be cautious about interest-rate cuts
Yesterday brought rather a marked change in views on the US economy and much of it related to this from the Institute for Supply Management or ISM. The New Orders Index remained in contraction...
View ArticleCan Japan maintain this real wage growth when its fiscal position needs...
A lot is happening in Japan right now especially in financial markets but as ever I will start with the real economy and let me open with some better news. It came from the economic output or GDP...
View ArticleWill France be able to impose the economic austerity required by the European...
It has been a summer where France has been in the news most obviously with the Paris Olympics. This week it has been added to via the parachuting in of former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as Prime...
View ArticleChina is adding to the list of economic worries right now
At the moment I would not say that all economic roads lead to China,but there are clear stresses and strains there resulting from the balance sheet effect from the property crisis. This morning has...
View ArticleUK employment and real wages rise as unemployment falls
This morning has brought us up to date on the latest UK labour market figures and in line with much of the economic news in 2024 it is pretty good. It is rather a counterpoint to what we were looking …...
View ArticleUK headline GDP disappoints but the underlying picture still looks strong
This morning has brought economic news for the UK that in terms of the headline is rather a disappointment. Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in July 2024,...
View ArticleCan Mario Draghi reform the European economic performance?
The last year or so has seen the leaders of the European Union forced to start to come to terms with the economic under performance of their bloc. In our terms we looked at a facet of this back on …...
View ArticleThe UK government is warming us up for changes in the debt and deficit rules
Today brings together several strands at the same time and we can start with something that whilst UK based is in fact an international issue. Plus it confirms one of my main themes about the QE bond...
View ArticleWill the US Federal Reserve reduce interest-rates by 0.5% this week?
Finally we have arrived at the week when we will see US interest-rates reduced from their present 5.25% to 5.5%. There is an irony here as the “higher for longer” rhetoric from Jerome Powell and his...
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