Will the expanding US fiscal deficit derail things?
Last week I looked at the US economy noting its good GDP performance in 2023 and also the fiscal issue. The latter got a bit of an update as the week progressed. Here is the Congressional Budget...
View ArticleThe Tokyo Whale looks set to suffer from some Norinchuken style indigestion
Japan is rather occupying the news at the moment with a state visit to the UK from the Emperor. Plus we played them at rugby at the weekend. But returning to our usual patrol there is something awfully...
View ArticleThe Reserve Bank of Australia gets another inflation headache
This morning the economic news agenda is being set by a place down under and in particular by this. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 4.0 per cent in the 12 months to May 2024, up...
View ArticleThe ECB is trying to reduce what is already weak money supply growth
These are awkward times for the ECB and its President Christine Lagarde. There are obvious issues in her home country of France which is at the heart of the Euro project. But my main issue is her...
View ArticleThe UK has just had the best GDP growth in the G7
This morning has brought some welcome news for the UK. UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, revised up from a first estimate increase...
View ArticleWhat next for UK house prices?
As we enter the second half of 2024 it is time again to look at the central bankers favourite topic. The research student presenting the Bank of England morning meeting will have kissed the screen...
View ArticleIs this the return of the bond vigilantes?
The last couple of weeks or so have seen some changes in bond markets. One shift was the French election and the likely unseating of President Macron’s government which shifted one of the core factors...
View ArticleWhat can we learn from the words of ECB President Lagarde at Sintra?
This week has seen the ECB decamp to its Sintra holiday home and no doubt many there are thirsting to get on this evening’s 18:00 bus which will take them to the delights of the Bank of Portugal wine...
View ArticleWhat is the true economic position in Turkey ( Turkiye)?
It gas been a while since we have looked at the economic situation and let me look at a positive. In what is now the holiday season then UK holiday makers will be getting more than 40 Turkish Lira for...
View ArticleWhat sort of economy does the new Labour government inherit?
Congratulations to the Labour Party on what is a resounding success in terms of parliamentary seats. I put it like that because they look set to get fewer vptes that when they lost. But we can continue...
View ArticleIs Japan signalling a future of falling real wages for all of us?
This summer was badged as being a time when we would see a change in something which has existed since the early 1990s. It has been a major theme of Japanese policy since the original plans of...
View ArticleThe latest attempt by the Bank of England to rewrite history shows not a...
Now the General Election has been and gone there will be more debate over what the Bank of England will do next. Will it cut interest-rates next month for example. So a speech from one of its...
View ArticleBetter times for Italy are not enough to break the Girlfriend in a Coma spell
It has been a while since we have taken a look at the economy of Italy and we can start with this morning’s release. In May 2024 the seasonally adjusted industrial production index increased by 0.5%...
View ArticleThe UK finds an economic growth spurt just in time to create a “Wealth Fund”...
This morning has brought us up to date with the latest news on the UK economy and it remains pretty good. Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in May 2024 after...
View ArticleWhat can we expect next from the US Federal Reserve?
As we continue our journey through 2024 we find that so far the US Federal Reserve has kept its interest-rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. In many ways it has had less impact than expected but there has been one...
View ArticleHouse Price falls in China are feeding directly into weaker GDP growth
This morning has brought us up to date with our leading indicator for the Chinese economy. So let me hand you over to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Second, the real estate market has...
View ArticleWhat are the challenges for the public finances of France?
A feature of the French economy has been its relatively large public sector. It has been something we have looked at many times and it has been a Euro area issue. Some countries considered the Growth...
View ArticleThe Bank of England has tightened monetary policy in the face of falling...
The UK has been updated on its latest inflation data this morning and the run of better news has continued. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to June 2024, the same rate as...
View ArticleShould we trust the UK GDP or the labour market figures?
Today has brought us up to date with the latest UK labour market data and the first question is are they telling the same story as the GDP numbers. The latter have been strong with economic growth...
View ArticleThe first rule of OBR Club is that the OBR is always wrong
We remain in the period of the month where we see plenty of official UK economic data. Plus today’s update gives us an insight into the changes in both policy and structure planned by the new Labour...
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